Brazil's winter of discontent seems to be coming to an end. Some observers believe that the peak of Brazil's protests has passed, with the largest ones taking place in June. The most recent protests on September 7 drew smaller crowds than in June and fewer people than protesters would have hoped. But the Independence Day demonstrations proved that there's still energy there, even if diminished. A survey this month found that 54 percent of Brazilians believe things haven't improved since the protests began. At the same time, Dilma's approval ratings are recovering, as is consumer confidence.
Some think the largest protests have come and gone, and that those numbers won't happen again, even during next year's World Cup. "In Brazil people need very clear reasons to leave their homes to speak out," wrote Brazilian journalist Mauricio Savarese on his blog. "That is what the protesters failed to give them after the initial wave of support in June."
But the possibilities for continued action in the street remain. "If something has changed since June, it's a new sense that street protest is valid, possible behavior for ordinary citizens," wrote journalist Claire Rigby for The New Statesman. "The fact is that it appears that in Brazil, like in other countries, the wave of protests is more persistent than expected, so this noise will continue for some time," Eugênio Bucci, a well known Brazilian reporter, said in an interview last month.
Here are some issues to watch for that could potentially spark new protests within the next year.
- The mensalão trial: One of the largest corruption cases in Brazilian history ended in the conviction of 25 people last year. The trial led to greater confidence in Supreme Court on the part of Brazilians accustomed to seeing corrupt officials get off the hook, and fame for Supreme Court Chief Justice Joaquim Barbosa, who's been especially critical of the mensaleiros. But on Tuesday, Brazil's Supreme Court will decide whether to give a new trial to 12 of the defendants. A new trial could definitely spur new protests, especially if it leads to the convictions being overturned. And until any of the defendants go to jail, there's potential for anger from the public.
- A new corruption scandal: It seems possible that there are corruption scandals to be uncovered, either in Brasilia or with World Cup and Olympics projects. If there was a big enough one, it could potentially anger Brazilians who already fed up with corrupt officials. A potential corruption scandal that would cause an outrage is if there was a misuse of funds or embezzlement of oil royalties or funds, given that legislation was passed after the protests to devote royalties to education and health.
- Increased police violence at ongoing protests: There have been festering, smaller protests around the country in July, August, and September, with ongoing police violence and clashes with demonstrators. If there's another big crackdown on peaceful protesters (an important caveat, given cases of property destruction and violence by groups like the Black Blocs) and it gets caught on video, it could help build support for new protests.
- A case of police crime that makes national headlines: The police, especially the military police, have come under even greater scrutiny as a result of the protests. If a case of a policeman murdering an innocent person comes to light--like the seemingly inevitable result of the Amarildo case, for example--it could feed anger that's already grown since June.
- A big spike in inflation: It would have to be a large enough increase to impact the new and the traditional middle classes' wallets and spending power. Inflation has been creeping up, and has been impacting the prices of food, rent, and health services.
- The World Cup: It looks likely there will at least be small protests during the games, but something like a corruption scandal linked to the Cup or some sort of policy impacting Brazilians that helps to benefit foreigners during the games could also spur demonstrations.
Photo: Protesters in São Paulo in June, by Semilla Luz.