Marina Silva's Squandered Opportunity

She was given a real shot at Brazil's presidency during a time when President Dilma Rousseff faces a number of serious challenges. And she just might have blown it already. In fact, as she has fallen in the polls, third-place contender Aécio Neves has been creeping up, with the potential to knock her out of a second round. So why hasn't Marina Silva lived up to the hype?

There are a number of factors working in her favor. After massive protests last year, there's a portion of the Brazilian population hungry for change. The Workers' Party has been in power for over a decade, leading to "PT fatigue" and bitterness about political corruption. Brazil is technically in a recession as the economy has slowed. And the president's approval ratings haven't been high.

Yet Marina hasn't been able to fully channel this dissatisfaction, nor able to fully take advantage of the country's situation. Instead, she's left voters scratching their heads about what she really stands for and what she would be like as a leader. And in some cases, she has simply alienated her potential voters.

First, she's been flip-flopping on a variety of issues from gay marriage to the country's amnesty law. She's irritated some supporters by meeting with investors and agrobusinessmen. The LGBT issue was particularly bad, given that some worried that her religious beliefs could influence how she would govern, and her change in stance on gay marriage came after complaints from evangelical leaders.

Next, she's come under constant attack from the president's campaign team. But she hasn't been very successful in responding.

 

Some of these ads warned that under Marina, all of Brazil's gains would literally disappear. Given the number of Brazilians who have left poverty and have joined the new middle class since the PT came into power, it's understandable how this kind of fear-mongering could be so effective.

But Marina's team wasn't very good at changing people's perceptions, and hasn't been able to react to the attack ads. Instead, her team has used a lot of rhetoric about Rousseff lying, in commercials like this which are not very impressive. The "liar, liar, pants on fire" line isn't particularly convincing.

 

This week, her team tried to step up her game, making better use of tapping into demands from last year's protests and highlighting complaints about quality of life and public services that many have.

 

She also went on the attack about corruption, something Aécio Neves has been more vocal about on the campaign trail.

But was it too little, too late?

Given the smaller window of time she's had to campaign since she became a candidate two months ago, she could have done more up front to tap into protester demands, and to capitalize on PT fatigue, especially when it comes to corruption. She could have stuck to her guns and demonstrated a clearer, more coherent platform and stance on key issues. And maybe she could have waited to court different interests until she made it to a second round. In an effort to gain mass appeal, she ended up trying to be a chameleon, but it didn't work.

Marina Motta, a Rio human rights researcher, told PRI's The World this week that the PT is "a decadent, sold-out party but it’s a historical, consistent party." Voting for the PT and Dilma, she explained, is playing it safe and voting for the devil you know. In Marina's case, no one seems to quite know who she is. And even though she represents change, voters may be wary of just what that change would mean.

Image: Talita Oliveira/Flickr.

Comments

[bamabrasileira]

She is basically an environmental activist with a pretty sketchy record who was thrust into a bid because the REAL presidential candidate DIED IN A PLANE CRASH!!! OMFG! Hopefully, the Brazilian people will do the right thing and vote for Neves, the only candidate who is prepared to be the president.

[Lisa Kauffmann]

Firstly, she took over the campaign after Eduardo Campos died in a plane crash. Many people who had supported him, jumped ship. Marina is appealing to the poorer voters because of her stance on the Bolsa Familia etc.She is not capable of running a country like Brazil as she has shown that she can flip flop quite easily on issues. As an ex-petista, for me she is 'flour of the same bag' as the PT, and if you dig a bit into her past, she was also part of the Communist Party at one point. I wouldn't trust her or Dilma for all of the tea in China. This may not be the place to say it, but I feel that if Dilma wins, Brazil will descend into a left wing neo communist dictatorship, along the lines of Venezuela.