I've written about consumer debt and the high cost of living in Brazil before, and it's popping up in the news again as prices rice higher and Brazilians continue to spend. Despite the fact that São Paulo is still the financial hub of the country, Rio is on the rise as a business destination, and with new businesses in town, costs are increasing even more.
The Financial Times reported this week that the cost of office rental space has drastically increased in Rio de Janeiro, and is now more expensive than in New York, Paris, and Milan. Rio office rental prices increased 47 percent in 2010, and now cost $1,321 per square meter, compared to $1,260 per square meter in Midtown Manhattan. The FT also published a story this week warning that Brazil is showing similar signs to the US before the crash, and that there are signs of a potential subprime crisis. Between inflation, credit growth, high consumer debt, and poor consumer credit protection, some economists believe Brazil's credit bubble could burst if there is any blip in the economy, be it a slower growth rate or a decrease in employment.
Meanwhile, inflation is increasing, a cause for concern for some. Inflation in 2011 has hit the poor and middle class in particular, hitting the highest rate for middle income earners in eight years. Inflation has made food more expensive, putting a strain on low income families but also worrying business leaders, who fear consumers spending more at the supermarket will spend less on larger purchases. Speaking of food, Estadão recently reported that Rio de Janeiro is the most expensive city in Brazil for eating out in restaurants, with an average cost of R$26.57 for a meal (including a main course, non-alcoholic beverage, dessert, and coffee).
With a larger pool of consumers buying products like washing machines, air conditioners, TVs, and computers, energy use per capita is increasing and infrastructure deficiencies are becoming more apparent. There was a major blackout across the Northeast a few weeks ago, and blackouts have hit Rio and São Paulo several times recently during the hottest summer months. While occasional summer blackouts have been a reality for years, the government is grappling with how to tackle energy issues as more and more Brazilians "enter the grid" or require more and more electricity.
Inflation and taxes continue to keep the cost of living and consumer goods extremely high in Brazil, but sometimes, there are other elements at play. While inflation is always a worry, I believe that in certain, specific situations, prices may not only come from larger macroeconomic forces but from a simpler concept: demand. Brazilians, like Americans, are opportunists, and savvy businesspeople know how to take advantage of higher demand. It's a bit like Carnival: with Brazilians on vacation and lots of tourists in town, Rio's prices skyrocket, especially for accomodations but also in other areas. Businesses know they can change the prices without question, since it's high season. So the same idea can apply to a booming economy. More multinationals flocking to Rio and need offices? Jack up the prices! More jobs, so more office workers eating out for lunch? Charge more! Where there's demand, there's opportunity, and when people are willing to pay, the only thing to lose is potential revenue. However, lack of competition goes hand in hand with demand, and only makes it easier to manipulate prices, which is a whole other concept worth investigating, especially in sectors like telecommunications and internet services.
In Rio, though, pricing can take on a whole other dimension. Sometimes, prices are used as a deliberate barrier to keep people out, like expensive covers at nightclubs or membership fees at ritzy gyms. In the same vein, prices sometimes are meant to reflect quality: the more you paid for something, the higher its perceived worth, even if the actual quality is not terribly different from a nearly identical, cheaper item or service. Value is attributed to having the ability to pay high prices, and social position and ascension derive in part from the willingness and pride to shell out the big bucks. While people are more than willing to spend less on certain overpriced items - say, on computers and iPods while on vacation in the US - having the ability to travel denotes financial resources and the willingness to pay in some capacity. I'd say this idea of higher pricing is more true of consumer goods, vacations, dining, and leisure than of basic living costs, like rent or groceries, and that this idea is based on my own observation and speculation. But it seems to me that in Rio, if you want to attract a certain type of consumer for a certain type of purchase, just sometimes, a slightly higher price may work more in your favor - especially now, with a growing middle class and a booming economy.